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The Enrollment Decline Windfall
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The Enrollment Decline Windfall

Enrollment declines leave more resources for students remaining in public schools

Contrary to the common argument that school choice programs drain resources from public schools, this report finds that districts with declining enrollment actually see greater increases in per-student funding than those with enrollment gains. While total district budgets may fluctuate with enrollment changes, per-pupil funding—the more relevant metric—increases when student numbers decline. Analysis of pre-COVID data shows that most American public school districts were already experiencing enrollment declines, yet those losing students saw larger per-student revenue and expenditure increases than districts with growing enrollments. Factors such as stable local funding, state formulas not always tied to enrollment, and federal funds that do not decrease proportionally contribute to this trend. With national public school enrollment projected to drop by 2.7 million students by 2031, understanding these financial patterns is critical. The report provides the first direct evidence that declining enrollment does not necessarily harm district finances but instead often results in more resources per remaining student.

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